Ice Fishing Forecast
It is looking like a great year to be out on the ice, so now is the perfect time to gather your gear and start planning. The 2025-2026 winter forecast points to variable conditions across the season in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, but AccuWeather, The Weather Channel and NOAA all anticipate patterns that support ice formation by late December.
Bays de Noc: A Top Ice Fishing Destination
When it comes to top-tier fishing in Michigan, it is hard to find ice-covered waters that rival the Escanaba area’s Bays de Noc on Lake Michigan. As a premier destination, it is wise to book your hotel or resort in advance of the peak months. For planning help, visit The Best Places to Fish Near Escanaba for details on fishing locations. Whether you are a seasoned angler or trying ice fishing for the first time, a resource like the Beginner’s Ice Fishing Guide is a great place to start.
With good preparation and attention to local conditions, this season can offer rewarding opportunities to reel in trophy catches and enjoy time on the ice. Do not miss it!
December: A Strong Start for Ice Formation
December’s plummeting temperatures usher in meteorological winter, and early forecasts point to favorable conditions for ice formation in the Great Lakes region by late December. Colder air is expected to sweep across the area and may generate lake-effect snow. This snowfall can help promote ice formation, making late December a prime time for anglers to scout locations and set up shanties. However, early winter ice thickness can vary significantly, so it is crucial to monitor conditions.
January & February: Variable Temps and Increased Snowfall
January and February are predicted to bring variable temperatures across the Midwest, including Michigan. While forecasters expect this pattern to continue because of a weak La Niña, they also note that more consistent cold conditions may develop as we progress toward February. This setup has the potential to alternate between warmer and colder air across the Great Lakes region. These shifts could lead to reduced ice thickness, especially on smaller or shallower lakes that are more susceptible to temperature changes, and there is also a chance for increased snowfall. Fortunately, the Upper Peninsula — especially the Escanaba/Gladstone area — typically maintains thicker ice due to its colder average temperatures.
Be sure to take advantage of Michigan’s Free Fishing Weekend, February 14-15, 2026, when Michigan waives fishing licenses for residents and visitors. It is a great time to introduce the sport to family and friends.
Safety Considerations for Ice Fishing in Variable Conditions
Given the forecast’s variability, safety remains paramount. Here are a few tips for safe ice fishing this season:
Regularly Check Ice Thickness: Conditions can change quickly. Always use an ice auger or spud bar before setting up. Seek at least 4 inches for foot traffic or 5 to 7 inches for snowmobiles or larger setups.
Stay Updated on Local Ice Conditions: Local ice reports are invaluable for staying informed about safe fishing spots. Check online forums, social media groups and updates from local bait and tackle shops; seasoned anglers often share real-time insights that can enhance your trip. You can also check NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for tracking broader weather patterns to help ensure you enjoy a safe ice fishing experience when wetting your line here.
Avoid Fishing Alone in Unstable Conditions: Staying safe is your top priority, particularly during unpredictable weather. Always fish with a partner or stay within sight of others to ensure help is readily available if needed.
Plan Your Visit
To make your ice-fishing trip a breeze, check out nearby restaurants and pubs for a warm meal before or after your time on the ice. Stop in nearby tackle shops and outdoor supply stores when you arrive; they’ll have the gear you need and insider tips from experienced anglers. We can’t wait to see you reeling in the big ones!